Русский New site

Advanced search

[ New messages · Forum rules · Members ]
Page 48 of 231«124647484950230231»
Forum » SpaceEngine » Off-topic Discussions » Totally off-topic thread (Talk about anything.)
Totally off-topic thread
WatsisnameDate: Sunday, 10.03.2013, 14:34 | Message # 706
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
United States
Messages: 2610
Status: Offline
Okay, I'll go over it again.

Quote
I think would be useful to investigate which models were able to predict it, and whether the reasons were right (e.g. they assumed the emission scenario that happened,


I have underlined the parts where you are having misconceptions.

Researchers aren't coming out with unique predictions/models in the manner you have described. Nobody is making assumptions on what emissions scenario will be, or what the climate sensitivity is exactly. Rather, we are stating what the collective range of possible outcomes may be, depending on the uncertainty in these factors.

This is why you should not say "with so many predictions of how the climate will be in 100 years, somebody will be correct." -- because there are not different people with different predictions.

And why you should not ask if they were 'correct for the right reasons' -- because the reasons are inherently not precisely knowable. Do you know what the future of fossil fuel consumption will be? Neither do I. So, rather than making specific predictions based off assumptions for these things, we treat them collectively with the uncertainty, and show what the range of outcomes are as a result of these possibilities. The result is +2 to +5 degrees C by 2100, provided some enormously unexpected turn of events does not occur.

Is this understandable? I honestly do not think I can describe this any more clearly than that. Let me know if you still have questions.







Edited by Watsisname - Sunday, 10.03.2013, 14:38
 
midtskogenDate: Sunday, 10.03.2013, 15:45 | Message # 707
Star Engineer
Group: Users
Norway
Messages: 1671
Status: Offline
Quote (Watsisname)
This is why you should not say "with so many predictions of how the climate will be in 100 years, somebody will be correct." -- because there are not different people with different predictions.

Now I begin to wonder if you believe in some kind of scientific canon. But science is full of different people proposing different hypotheses with different and conflicting predictions/implications. Like the origin of the continents, of the Moon, age of the world, etc. If you have a model of the world, and for one set of inputs you got 42, while for another set of inputs, which also was what nature later happened to choose, you got 2.718281828, then I'm not saying that the parts of the model that was involved in producing the number 42 were wrong. Is that how you understood me?





NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI


Edited by midtskogen - Sunday, 10.03.2013, 15:45
 
WatsisnameDate: Sunday, 10.03.2013, 18:33 | Message # 708
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
United States
Messages: 2610
Status: Offline
I meant it is not as if there is one group claiming 2°, another group claiming 5°, etc. Or did you mean predictions significantly different than this range, in which case if you know of relevant peer-reviewed articles I'd love to see a link?

As for if I believe in some scientific 'canon'... well, I'd say I tend to go by consensus. It may be wrong, and it's good to investigate other ideas, but until compelling evidence arises to support such a change then I'm probably not going to do so.

Quote
If you have a model of the world, and for one set of inputs you got 42, while for another set of inputs, which also was what nature later happened to choose, you got 2.718281828, then I'm not saying that the parts of the model that was involved in producing the number 42 were wrong. Is that how you understood me?


Ok, and yeah it did originally strike me that way. Glad to have this cleared up.







Edited by Watsisname - Sunday, 10.03.2013, 19:18
 
midtskogenDate: Sunday, 10.03.2013, 20:41 | Message # 709
Star Engineer
Group: Users
Norway
Messages: 1671
Status: Offline
Quote (midtskogen)
I meant it is not as if there is one group claiming 2°, another group claiming 5°, etc. Or did you mean predictions significantly different than this range, in which case if you know of relevant peer-reviewed articles I'd love to see a link?


I think we've cleared up that now. You mean papers claiming sensitivity outside the IPCC likely range? Google gave me these:

Richard Lindzen: 0.6 to 1.0 C (Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011)
Andreas Schmittner: 1.4 to 2.8 C (Science, 2011)
James Annan, using two techniques: 1.2 to 3.6 C and 1.3 to 4.2 C (Climatic Change, 2011)
J.H. van Hateren: 1.5 to 2.5 C (Climate Dynamics, 2012)
Michael Ring: 1.5 to 2.0 C (Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2012)
Julia Hargreaves, including cooling from dust: 0.2 to 4.0 C and 0.8 to 3.6 C (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)

But we strictly don't need to stop there. The list could be long if we include it all the way to, say, the man in the pub down the street who insists that the equator will freeze over within 100 years. Who may serve to illustrate my "right reasons" point. Even if the equator does freeze over, I highly doubt that it will have anything to do with that man's explanation for it.

Quote (Watsisname)
As for if I believe in some scientific 'canon'... well, I'd say I tend to go by consensus.

A canon gets fixed once and for all. A scientific consensus must change, but then, there can't be a strict consensus, can it?

Edit: if everybody goes by the consensus, it would become a canon, so you defenitely need a "tend" there.





NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI


Edited by midtskogen - Sunday, 10.03.2013, 20:48
 
WatsisnameDate: Monday, 11.03.2013, 06:04 | Message # 710
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
United States
Messages: 2610
Status: Offline
Actually I was referring to temperature change by 2100, but climate sensitivity is fine, too. And actually most of those estimates are fairly close or within the low side of IPCC estimates. Climate sensitivity estimates peak at ~3°C but there is a sharp tail on the low side and a very long tail at the upper side.




 
SpyroDate: Monday, 11.03.2013, 20:10 | Message # 711
Explorer
Group: Users
United States
Messages: 162
Status: Offline
Sorry I have been offline for almost a week, I was very sick. Anyway, are you guys talking about comets?




I'm back, but am I here to stay? Hopefully!
 
HarbingerDawnDate: Monday, 11.03.2013, 20:39 | Message # 712
Cosmic Curator
Group: Administrators
United States
Messages: 8714
Status: Offline
Quote (Spyro)
Sorry I have been offline for almost a week, I was very sick. Anyway, are you guys talking about comets?

As you can plainly see, they're talking about global warming (again).





All forum users, please read this!
My SE mods and addons
Phenom II X6 1090T 3.2 GHz, 16 GB DDR3 RAM, GTX 970 3584 MB VRAM
 
WatsisnameDate: Monday, 11.03.2013, 23:18 | Message # 713
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
United States
Messages: 2610
Status: Offline
It's okay, I'm about as done with talking about it as everyone else is done with hearing it.




 
DoctorOfSpaceDate: Tuesday, 12.03.2013, 03:06 | Message # 714
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
Pirate
Messages: 3599
Status: Offline






Intel Core i7-5820K 4.2GHz 6-Core Processor
G.Skill Ripjaws V Series 32GB (4 x 8GB) DDR4-2400 Memory
EVGA GTX 980 Ti SC 6GB
 
WatsisnameDate: Tuesday, 12.03.2013, 04:18 | Message # 715
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
United States
Messages: 2610
Status: Offline
I'm just glad most of those are shoops.

...

Right?





 
SpyroDate: Tuesday, 12.03.2013, 21:14 | Message # 716
Explorer
Group: Users
United States
Messages: 162
Status: Offline
I hope.




I'm back, but am I here to stay? Hopefully!
 
werdnaforeverDate: Wednesday, 13.03.2013, 05:25 | Message # 717
World Builder
Group: Users
United States
Messages: 897
Status: Offline
This asymmetrical design isn't very realistic, but I think it's kind of interesting.

Laugh out loud!

Attachments: 9914500.png(247Kb)
 
DoctorOfSpaceDate: Wednesday, 13.03.2013, 06:49 | Message # 718
Galaxy Architect
Group: Global Moderators
Pirate
Messages: 3599
Status: Offline
Seems completely legit to me.




Intel Core i7-5820K 4.2GHz 6-Core Processor
G.Skill Ripjaws V Series 32GB (4 x 8GB) DDR4-2400 Memory
EVGA GTX 980 Ti SC 6GB
 
TimDate: Wednesday, 13.03.2013, 18:21 | Message # 719
Explorer
Group: Users
Belgium
Messages: 296
Status: Offline
Especially the one on the left could be a gravity simulating station if it were large enough.
 
Blu3smanDate: Wednesday, 13.03.2013, 21:29 | Message # 720
Space Tourist
Group: Users
Ukraine
Messages: 28
Status: Offline
werdnaforever, Nice design.
But I have a strange feeling that something is bothering you. What that might be?.. I have no idea..
 
Forum » SpaceEngine » Off-topic Discussions » Totally off-topic thread (Talk about anything.)
Page 48 of 231«124647484950230231»
Search: